Growing Pains
This project analyzed the growing population of our earth, and the affects on the environment.
Part A: (Niger)
Are there any drastic changes in the population of your country? If so, research the historical events of your country during the time it experienced dramatic shifts in population growth. Explain if/how those events could have led to or affected the changes in population.
Niger hasn’t experienced any sudden or drastic population changes, instead they’re on a continual path to an extremely overpopulated country. The effects of this overpopulation will lead to unmanageable demands on the economy, social services, and the environment. Niger is a very pro-natal country where the average number of offspring per mother is 7.1 Moreover, most women in Niger say they would like to have nine kids, and most men said they would like 12. Because of this, Niger has experienced a 3.3% population increase per year since its first inhabitants.
The Nigerian government’s action plan is to increase the practice of family planning and use of contraceptives from 5% to 20% by 2015. In addition, they plan to implement education campaigns to educate religion leaders and women about the importance of family planning. Lastly, they plan to cut the prevalence of early marriages where girls are having children by the age of 15. If they can push this back to 18, they will effectively cut off four years of a women’s reproductive life. In all, this is planned to reduce the average number of children produced per women to five, and slow the growth rate down to 2.5%.
What are your country’s natural commodities? How do these affect the country’s population and sustainability?
Niger's largest natural commodity is its uranium deposits, which are some of the largest in the world. At the start of the country, their economy was booming with the export of uranium, however the drop in world demand for uranium has undercut an already marginal economy. When you add this with drought cycles and desertification of the land, their crops and livestock have stopped thriving. As their two main economy boosters have decreased significantly, their sustainability has been dramatically changed. With their growing population, soon Niger will not be able to provide for all of it’s inhabitants, and it’s economy will continue to plummet.
Are there any drastic changes in the population of your country? If so, research the historical events of your country during the time it experienced dramatic shifts in population growth. Explain if/how those events could have led to or affected the changes in population.
Niger hasn’t experienced any sudden or drastic population changes, instead they’re on a continual path to an extremely overpopulated country. The effects of this overpopulation will lead to unmanageable demands on the economy, social services, and the environment. Niger is a very pro-natal country where the average number of offspring per mother is 7.1 Moreover, most women in Niger say they would like to have nine kids, and most men said they would like 12. Because of this, Niger has experienced a 3.3% population increase per year since its first inhabitants.
The Nigerian government’s action plan is to increase the practice of family planning and use of contraceptives from 5% to 20% by 2015. In addition, they plan to implement education campaigns to educate religion leaders and women about the importance of family planning. Lastly, they plan to cut the prevalence of early marriages where girls are having children by the age of 15. If they can push this back to 18, they will effectively cut off four years of a women’s reproductive life. In all, this is planned to reduce the average number of children produced per women to five, and slow the growth rate down to 2.5%.
What are your country’s natural commodities? How do these affect the country’s population and sustainability?
Niger's largest natural commodity is its uranium deposits, which are some of the largest in the world. At the start of the country, their economy was booming with the export of uranium, however the drop in world demand for uranium has undercut an already marginal economy. When you add this with drought cycles and desertification of the land, their crops and livestock have stopped thriving. As their two main economy boosters have decreased significantly, their sustainability has been dramatically changed. With their growing population, soon Niger will not be able to provide for all of it’s inhabitants, and it’s economy will continue to plummet.
Part B: (World)
Research and record the global population over the past 5 decades or since 1960. Write a mathematical model to represent the growth. What is the annual population growth rate based on this data? How does the annual growth rate change if you just consider the last 2 decades? What is the annual growth rate if you only take into account the last 10 years? What do you notice about the growth rate?
1.015 = Annual Growth Rate
1.0131 = Annual Growth Rate (Past 2 Decades)
1.0107 = Annual Growth Rate (Past Decade)
The Annual Growth Rate gets smaller as you scale the time frame down.
What is the estimated population in 2030 according to your model of the past 2 decades?
5.2788 = principle population
40 = time elapsed since principal population
1.131 = rate of growth
A = Current Population (at 2030)
= 5.2788^(40*1.131)
= 4.8695 Billion
When will the global population double if it continues at the same rate?
Y = 6338938562.974(1.0107^X)
7199904466 = current population
.010107 = 1.0107% global population growth rate
x = time
Y = 6338938562.974(1.0107^X)
(2(7199904466) = 6338938562.974(1.0107^X))/6338938562.974
(log(2.27164355533) = x * log(1.0107))/log(1.0107)
77.0921 = x
77.0921 + 1994 = 2071.0921
Compare the global population growth rate with the food production rate. Will there ever be a shortage of food if both rates remain the same? If so, when?
7,199,000,000 Global Population 1.1% Growth Rate
Research the availability of at least one nonrenewable natural resource (water, fossil fuels, etc). If the world population continues to grow at the same rate, when will we run out of this resource, if ever?
In the coming centuries, earth will have an extreme lack of usable drinking water, similar to our current situation however on a larger scale. Although the amount of water currently on earth is equal to the amount at the origin of earth, only 3% is usable. This amount continues to decrease as time goes on, and additionally our usable water continues to become contaminated and polluted.
As population continues to increase, continuous pressure build up on our fresh water sources. Our water reserves have been seen to decrease just as our population increases. Furthermore, our groundwater and reserves are being used faster than more water can be be replenished, inevitably leading us to a point in time where all water is gone. If we were to access all available water:
Gallons of usable water on Earth: 2.147178437e+21
2147178437000000000000
561258483520134.
Gallons of water Used per person per year: 32,850
Gallons of water used by total population per year:
Current Population: 7199904466
If we were to continue with our current growth rate, our earth would run out of usable water around the year: 3475
How do you think this growth rate will affect access to healthcare (especially for aging populations) over the next few decades?
The rising growth rate of the world continues to affect the access to healthcare that citizens have. As majority of our population continues to age, the amount of health care spending has increased significantly. A large part of our population is under the age of 40, meaning that in the coming decades, our population of elderly citizens will increase exceedingly. Furthermore, the care for the elderly will become more prevalent, and provide better access to health care.
Currently, the median age in the world is 24.3 years old. Though this is young, the world’s population as a whole in aging quickly. Between 1950 and 2000, the percentage of children ages 1-14 fell to 30% from previously being 34%. Additionally, the percentage of people ages 60+ increased from 8% to 10%. Furthermore, it’s projected by the United Nations that children will only account for 21% of the total world population, lower than the projected 21% for those 60 or older. These differences may seem small, however they lead to large differences in the median of the worlds population. By 2050, the projected median age will be a whopping 46.4 years old.
As our population reaches older ages, health care will become a larger issue, as a large portion of the worlds population will be in need of such care. As more countries decide to provide free healthcare to their citizens, countries debts will increase significantly. However, should healthcare cost money to citizens, many will not receive the care they need.
What can the maximum annual growth rate be in order for the world population to remain under 8.5 billion by the year 2050?
7199904466 = Current Population
36 = Elapsed Time
(8,500,000,000 = 7199904466 * r^36)/(7199904466)
1.18057122 = r^36
1.004621714 = r
.004621714%
Describe a measurable method for decreasing our consumption of one of the non renewable resources.
2.2 gallons of water per minute in the shower
8 minutes on average in the shower
8 * 2.2 = 17.6 gallons of water per shower
17.6 * 7,199,000,000 = 126,702,400,000 (gallons * population)
326,000,000,000,000,000,000
Do you think a government or a society should have the right to implement family planning policies such as the number of children allowed per household? Why or why not?
Within our group, two members agreed that child restriction laws and family planning policies should not be allowed. Not only does restricting the birth of children violate human rights, but the overall use of the policy is seemingly unconstitutional. In the long run, many problems arise when the number of children per family is limited.
The 4:2:1 issue arises, meaning that now for every single child born, they’re given the responsibility of caring for their two parents and four grandparents in their old age. This means there is not enough care for the elderly, as the younger population in incredibly outnumbered.
In addition, the restrictiveness of childbirth have caused an immense change in the sex ratio of the population, changing from the natural baseline of 103:100 (males:females), to a ratio of 117:100. This is the effect of letting certain families conceive an additional child, should the first be born a girl. This increase in male population can potentially lead to social instability, and cause emigration based purely on marriage and child conception.
Lastly, government involvement in the amount of children allowed per family can cause social complications, as parents can be known to over-pamper their only child. Not only can this cause poor social skills, communication, and cooperation, but can cause children to lack self-discipline.
One the other hand, one member of our group felt that a government or a society should have the right to implement family planning policies, such as the number of children allowed per household. The implementation of family planning has be used for reasons of economic, social, and environmental conflicts within countries; and though it’s a controversial topic, it highly succeeds at it’s purpose. By implementing a more restrictive system of birthing children, infant mortality rates could be dramatically reduced, life expectancies could be increased, and the growing population could take less of a toll all aspects of the world.
Research and record the global population over the past 5 decades or since 1960. Write a mathematical model to represent the growth. What is the annual population growth rate based on this data? How does the annual growth rate change if you just consider the last 2 decades? What is the annual growth rate if you only take into account the last 10 years? What do you notice about the growth rate?
1.015 = Annual Growth Rate
1.0131 = Annual Growth Rate (Past 2 Decades)
1.0107 = Annual Growth Rate (Past Decade)
The Annual Growth Rate gets smaller as you scale the time frame down.
What is the estimated population in 2030 according to your model of the past 2 decades?
5.2788 = principle population
40 = time elapsed since principal population
1.131 = rate of growth
A = Current Population (at 2030)
= 5.2788^(40*1.131)
= 4.8695 Billion
When will the global population double if it continues at the same rate?
Y = 6338938562.974(1.0107^X)
7199904466 = current population
.010107 = 1.0107% global population growth rate
x = time
Y = 6338938562.974(1.0107^X)
(2(7199904466) = 6338938562.974(1.0107^X))/6338938562.974
(log(2.27164355533) = x * log(1.0107))/log(1.0107)
77.0921 = x
77.0921 + 1994 = 2071.0921
Compare the global population growth rate with the food production rate. Will there ever be a shortage of food if both rates remain the same? If so, when?
7,199,000,000 Global Population 1.1% Growth Rate
Research the availability of at least one nonrenewable natural resource (water, fossil fuels, etc). If the world population continues to grow at the same rate, when will we run out of this resource, if ever?
In the coming centuries, earth will have an extreme lack of usable drinking water, similar to our current situation however on a larger scale. Although the amount of water currently on earth is equal to the amount at the origin of earth, only 3% is usable. This amount continues to decrease as time goes on, and additionally our usable water continues to become contaminated and polluted.
As population continues to increase, continuous pressure build up on our fresh water sources. Our water reserves have been seen to decrease just as our population increases. Furthermore, our groundwater and reserves are being used faster than more water can be be replenished, inevitably leading us to a point in time where all water is gone. If we were to access all available water:
Gallons of usable water on Earth: 2.147178437e+21
2147178437000000000000
561258483520134.
Gallons of water Used per person per year: 32,850
Gallons of water used by total population per year:
Current Population: 7199904466
If we were to continue with our current growth rate, our earth would run out of usable water around the year: 3475
How do you think this growth rate will affect access to healthcare (especially for aging populations) over the next few decades?
The rising growth rate of the world continues to affect the access to healthcare that citizens have. As majority of our population continues to age, the amount of health care spending has increased significantly. A large part of our population is under the age of 40, meaning that in the coming decades, our population of elderly citizens will increase exceedingly. Furthermore, the care for the elderly will become more prevalent, and provide better access to health care.
Currently, the median age in the world is 24.3 years old. Though this is young, the world’s population as a whole in aging quickly. Between 1950 and 2000, the percentage of children ages 1-14 fell to 30% from previously being 34%. Additionally, the percentage of people ages 60+ increased from 8% to 10%. Furthermore, it’s projected by the United Nations that children will only account for 21% of the total world population, lower than the projected 21% for those 60 or older. These differences may seem small, however they lead to large differences in the median of the worlds population. By 2050, the projected median age will be a whopping 46.4 years old.
As our population reaches older ages, health care will become a larger issue, as a large portion of the worlds population will be in need of such care. As more countries decide to provide free healthcare to their citizens, countries debts will increase significantly. However, should healthcare cost money to citizens, many will not receive the care they need.
What can the maximum annual growth rate be in order for the world population to remain under 8.5 billion by the year 2050?
7199904466 = Current Population
36 = Elapsed Time
(8,500,000,000 = 7199904466 * r^36)/(7199904466)
1.18057122 = r^36
1.004621714 = r
.004621714%
Describe a measurable method for decreasing our consumption of one of the non renewable resources.
2.2 gallons of water per minute in the shower
8 minutes on average in the shower
8 * 2.2 = 17.6 gallons of water per shower
17.6 * 7,199,000,000 = 126,702,400,000 (gallons * population)
326,000,000,000,000,000,000
Do you think a government or a society should have the right to implement family planning policies such as the number of children allowed per household? Why or why not?
Within our group, two members agreed that child restriction laws and family planning policies should not be allowed. Not only does restricting the birth of children violate human rights, but the overall use of the policy is seemingly unconstitutional. In the long run, many problems arise when the number of children per family is limited.
The 4:2:1 issue arises, meaning that now for every single child born, they’re given the responsibility of caring for their two parents and four grandparents in their old age. This means there is not enough care for the elderly, as the younger population in incredibly outnumbered.
In addition, the restrictiveness of childbirth have caused an immense change in the sex ratio of the population, changing from the natural baseline of 103:100 (males:females), to a ratio of 117:100. This is the effect of letting certain families conceive an additional child, should the first be born a girl. This increase in male population can potentially lead to social instability, and cause emigration based purely on marriage and child conception.
Lastly, government involvement in the amount of children allowed per family can cause social complications, as parents can be known to over-pamper their only child. Not only can this cause poor social skills, communication, and cooperation, but can cause children to lack self-discipline.
One the other hand, one member of our group felt that a government or a society should have the right to implement family planning policies, such as the number of children allowed per household. The implementation of family planning has be used for reasons of economic, social, and environmental conflicts within countries; and though it’s a controversial topic, it highly succeeds at it’s purpose. By implementing a more restrictive system of birthing children, infant mortality rates could be dramatically reduced, life expectancies could be increased, and the growing population could take less of a toll all aspects of the world.